Why the world will one day be overpopulated by great cars

"Dasupersprint - base trim is enough" (dasupersprint) 02/18/2014 at 11:51 • Filed to: None

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I frequently browse through catalogs for upcoming classic car auctions. They're the best for discovering rare cars you never heard about. And my god there is so many. From the obvious Miura SV to the unexpected 1950's family sedan, there are lots and lots of classic cars on the market.

That raises a question: how many classic cars are there in the world, right now?

I'm not talking about rust buckets in some backyard. I'm talking about cared for, running cars, or museum pieces. Old endurance cars. Vintage Formula ones. Rally cars. Hot rods. Brass-era cars. Supercars.

I don't know what the number is, but what I know for sure is that this number is growing every year.

Let me explain.

Let's take our typical but very big car company, Toyota. Toyota produces 10 million cars per year. How many 2014 Toyotas do you think there will still be in 50 years from now? Well, no one cares actually, because those cars are disposable means of transportation and, even if you like your Toyota a lot, one day or another the car will become too expensive and complicated to keep running, and you will let it meet that big crusher in the sky.

Now, take for example cars that are probably the most collected and/or put in museums: Ferraris. According to Wikipedia, Ferrari produced 7,318 road cars in 2012. How many of them will still be around in 2064? Well, apart from the obvious fires and crashes, a great percentage of them will, because they are valuable, desirable cars that are cared for. I'd say that about 7000 will be here. Even if a Ferrari is worn out, money will be spent, care will be applied to keep it living.

There may be 50 000 Ferrari road cars in the world, right now. If 7000 Ferraris form each model year are kept alive for the next 50 years, there will be 400 000 freaking Ferraris in the world.

Now you see where I'm going? And that's only Ferrari. Many cars will be kept in the future. There's the current classics, and what we call the future classics. Cars that have a bit of soul , are rare, and deserve to be saved for the next generations. Jaguar F-Type? Sure. Any AMG Mercedes? Hell yes. Cadillac CTS-V? I hope so. Nissan Juke? Well, maybe someone will save at least one.

If our world becomes overpopulated with rare cars, they will not be rare anymore. Values will drop. Classic cars for everyone!

Let me know what you think.

Cynical > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 11:54

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Everyone deserves to ride in the way they want.

Audi-os, amigos > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 11:56

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I think you underestimate the percentage of the population that DOES keep their Ford/Toyota/etc running, and the reason is not aesthetics or sentiment but necessity.

vdub_nut: scooter snob > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 11:56

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I am laughing uncontrollably right now

crowmolly > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 11:58

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Owning an "old" car is a hobbyist thing in a lot of cases. Past a certain year the manufacturer won't make parts for it anymore, and then it's a PITA until somebody makes repro stuff, and then it's a gamble if the stuff will fit right. Everything will get old, which means everything will need some level of work to keep things nice. How many places do you know that will work on a 30 year old Ferrari and not charge a Brinks truck full of cash?

And may God have mercy on your soul if your car has one-year only stuff.

505Turbeaux > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 11:58

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I have floated around the viability of brass era cars with people under the age of 50. Unless there is a resurgence of interest in these I see them existing solely in museums. Too bad but I even see interest in 50's domestic cars waning too in the 20-40 demographic. Not that these cars are going to be destroyed for any reason, but they will become more of an oddity in the future.

Why I see malaise era land yachts bringing all the money these days will always baffle me, but I get that those were the sleds of money havers in the past

Dasupersprint - base trim is enough > Audi-os, amigos 02/18/2014 at 11:59

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Yes, I am myself planning to keep my 10 year old car running for as long as I can. But I'm talking about a 50 years time difference. I don't think anyone right now drives a 1964 car because they have no choice, at least not in North America.

vdub_nut: scooter snob > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 12:00

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Also, the laws of supply and demand are still in effect for used/classic cars. If there are 3 Lamborgatti Fastarossas left, they are worth more than they would be if there were 300 or so, thus more desirable to sellers (and more appealing to buyers, despite the higher price). As Thundercougarfalconbirds start to stack up on collector sites and B-J Auctions and their ilk, they will become less desirable to those in the market. More will be allowed to decay, or the less-desirable ones will be scavenged to keep the good ones on the road/auction block/ 2063 hover-road.

crowmolly > 505Turbeaux 02/18/2014 at 12:01

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Attendance at Goodguys is way down. I think they changed their year restriction because of it.

A3R0 > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 12:01

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I see exactly what you're talking about. However, if we look at this scientifically, by that time in the future, the population will be much bigger. If you luck at the number of cars now and the number of cars in the 1950's, we have many, many more. So, the population rises, so does the population of cars, and the percentage of classics on the road stays the same.

Hoccy > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 12:03

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I think new car sales will slow down, or be limited to just a few manufacturers. With less difference in the market not so many will bother to keep the cars of today alive. Not many 90's cars, apart from the obvious supercars and such, will survive the next 10-20 years.

JQJ213- Now With An Extra Cylinder! > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 12:05

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I actually saw a new Mirage last night! It was in that horrendous purple and being driven by some young girl. They sold one!

Audi-os, amigos > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 12:10

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Fair enough. I still disagree with your thesis, though. I would doubt that 96% (7000/7318) of "desirable" cars survive each year, and certainly that number drops for each subsequent year after production.

Also, as more and more common cars are produced, they flood the market and force the exotic cars to the fringes - where they have always been. Why isn't the road already flooded with Ferraris? They've been making them for 60 years, haven't they? It's because common production will always fast outstrip exotic production, and the demand for exotic cars is infinitesimally small compared to the demand for common cars.

By the way, in 2012, there were 291,000 Toyota Corollas sold in the United States alone.

Dasupersprint - base trim is enough > 505Turbeaux 02/18/2014 at 12:31

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True, that. If interest is low, those machines will be left to rot, Maybe because from the point of view of a younger person, they all look similar. but they truly have some unique features, especially the hand-made bodies.

505Turbeaux > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 12:34

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I agree 100%. As the generation that has collections of these die off and younger generations take over the collections, it is going to be rough. Sad enough I know very few people under the age of 30 who can set timing or rebuild a carburetor

Dasupersprint - base trim is enough > Audi-os, amigos 02/18/2014 at 12:35

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Yep, but I'm just an armchair scientist. Maybe 7000 is the number I want it to be.

Dasupersprint - base trim is enough > vdub_nut: scooter snob 02/18/2014 at 12:37

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This would be the most logical thing to happen

Dasupersprint - base trim is enough > crowmolly 02/18/2014 at 12:42

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I always thought cars of today will be much more difficult to restore than before with all the electronics involved. It's not just welding and a couple of wires.

evil2win > crowmolly 02/18/2014 at 13:04

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I use to wonder why people would spend so much time and effort into restoring a car then never drive the thing. You make some valid points there. I have a 73 Fiat 124 spider that is great fun to drive, and parts are plentiful as 124s are still made in much of the developing world. even then with all the work I have in it I try not to drive it in the winter unless the roads are dry, because rust and Italian cars. I had an 82 spider I used as a daily driver and after 5 years it turned into a rust bucket.

crowmolly > Dasupersprint - base trim is enough 02/18/2014 at 14:33

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I'd wholeheartedly agree with you.

Tuning carbs is one thing.

Tuning and repairing a proprietary electronics system that will have a small universe of tuners is completely another. Look at the GM TPI and GM LT1 guys. There's not too many tuners left.

crowmolly > evil2win 02/18/2014 at 14:37

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Easy. If you crack it up you are fucked.

Example: The emblems on my muscle car fenders are not reproduced. They are $400 a pair. Sure you'd get agreed value payout from insurance, but your car is still gonzo.